Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that Cardano (ADA) will experience another drop against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before the end of 2024. Cowen, who has a significant following on the social media platform X, explains that historically, ADA has fluctuated against BTC within the range of 400 to 4,000 satoshis (sats), with final declines occurring at the end of the halving year.

Cowen highlights two bearish conditions for risk assets like crypto that coincide with the four-year ADA/BTC pattern: relatively restrictive monetary policy and a rally in the US dollar. He believes that ADA/BTC will experience one more drop before the end of the year and then rise in 2025.

To provide some comparison, Cowen presents statistics:

– November 2020 low: 583 sats
– November 2020 high: 995 sats
– December 2020 low: 503 sats
– November 2024 low: 470 sats
– November 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)
– December 2024 low: ???

Cowen explains that if quantitative tightening (QT) were over, he would be less inclined to expect another drop, given that BTC dominance has already reached 60% and ADA/BTC dropped to 470 sats (with a multi-year target of 400 sats). However, with QT continuing and the US dollar index (DXY) rallying, he believes that another drop by ADA/BTC before the end of the year cannot be dismissed.

Cowen holds a similar view on altcoins in general. He shares a chart that examines the TOTAL3-USDT chart, which measures the total market cap of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins. The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT versus Bitcoin is struggling to surpass a level reached in late 2020, suggesting that altcoins could weaken further.

He mentions that BTC dominance (BTC.D) dropping to 60% is a possibility, but his main concern is that ALT/BTC pairs are still far from their historic lows. Additionally, quantitative tightening continues, and both the DXY and yields are rising, which historically leads to an increase in BTC dominance in December of halving years.

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