Prominent cryptocurrency analyst TechDev suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may currently be caught in a bear trap designed to weed out weak investors before experiencing a significant price surge. In a tweet shared with his substantial following of 464,000 on the social media platform X, TechDev presents a Bitcoin chart that indicates BTC is emulating its pre-parabola price action from 2017 after approximately 1,200 days of accumulation.

The chart by TechDev also integrates the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) metric, which measures the overall sentiment of market participants by monitoring the unrealized gains and losses of all circulating coins. According to the analyst’s chart, Bitcoin’s NUPL undergoes four distinct stages during a bull cycle: hope, optimism, belief, and euphoria. TechDev suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the belief stage, which typically witnesses the most substantial price rallies of the bull run.

TechDev proceeds to share another chart illustrating what he believes to be the 16 different stages of the Bitcoin market cycle. He asserts that BTC is presently in the “bear trap” phase, characterized by a correction driven by concerns of overvaluation and premature fears of the cycle’s conclusion, which causes prices to decline just before a significant expansion into the euphoria zone.

Additionally, TechDev examines two indicators that he claims have a reliable track record of signaling the beginning and end of previous Bitcoin blow-off tops: the relative strength index (RSI) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) index. The RSI serves as a momentum indicator, while the CMF is a volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a specific period.

TechDev states, “RSI calls the tops. CMF calls the blow-offs.”

Upon reviewing TechDev’s chart, it appears that the RSI has yet to reach a descending resistance line that has historically indicated the conclusion of bull markets in previous cycles. In contrast, the CMF has recently surpassed a resistance level that has previously signaled the commencement of significant Bitcoin rallies.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $55,282.