According to Bloomberg exchange-traded funds (ETFs) analyst Eric Balchunas, the chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF by late May are slim.

In response to a question about his pessimistic view on the approval of an ETH spot ETF, Balchunas explained during an interview on the David Lin YouTube channel that one reason for his skepticism is that the approval process is falling behind schedule.

“The final deadline is May 21st, if I recall correctly. We are now six weeks away, and the SEC has not yet provided any comments to the issuers. Comments refer to the issuers submitting regulatory filings, and the SEC would typically respond with something like, ‘Hey, we have 10 questions for you. Can you please address these and send us a new filing?'”

He further explained that after reviewing the new filing, the SEC would provide another round of comments, which could take weeks or even months. However, this process has not even started yet, leading Balchunas to believe that the SEC has intentionally chosen not to comment.

Balchunas also pointed out that the opinions of SEC Chair Gary Gensler could be a factor in hindering the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. Gensler is believed to view Ether as a security rather than a commodity, and approving an ETF would contradict his stance.

“In his heart, I think we all agree that Gensler sees Ether as a security. He doesn’t want it to be treated as a commodity. So if he approves it, he would be essentially saying that it’s a commodity, which goes against his beliefs.”

Balchunas added that unlike the spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, the SEC is not currently under pressure to approve a spot Ethereum ETF. The approval of the Bitcoin ETF followed Grayscale winning a lawsuit against the SEC.

“In the ruling against the regulator, the judge found the SEC’s failure to approve a Grayscale Bitcoin exchange-traded product to be unlawful. But I don’t see any political wiggle room for Gensler, and I don’t think he wants to approve it anyway. Bitcoin had all those factors in its favor; it had a case they lost, Gensler was okay with it being a commodity, and the political situation was not as tense.”

In conclusion, Balchunas believes that the odds are stacked against the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by late May, citing the delayed approval process, Gensler’s beliefs, and the lack of pressure on the SEC as contributing factors.